Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
Central Bank of Iran-sourced annual inflation-rate series via Iran Data Portal (Syracuse), 78 continuous years.
Event_Log
011974Great Civilization spending surge -- Fifth Plan revisedAssociation
Following the 1973-74 oil price quadrupling, government oil revenue rises from $5bn to $19bn in a year; the Shah revises the Fifth Development Plan, nearly doubling total planned investment from $36.5bn to $70bn and raising overall government spending from $44bn to $123bn, fueling severe absorptive-capacity bottlenecks and inflation.
Why this link: CPI inflation climbed from 11.3% (1976) to a pre-2010s-series peak of 27.3% in 1977, consistent with the classic absorptive-capacity-constrained overheating that followed the 1973-74 oil-boom spending surge; the government's blunt 1975-77 anti-profiteering price-control crackdown (a further contemporaneous event) suppressed some price signals while doing little to address the underlying excess-demand cause.
Caveat: A 2-3 year lag between the spending surge and the inflation peak is plausible but not provable from this series alone; wage/price data quality for this period is also generally weaker than for the post-1979 series.
Lag: 2-3 year lagSource: Intereconomics (Naini) -- The Fifth Development Plan021993Exchange-rate unification attemptAssociation
Rafsanjani government attempts to unify Iran's multiple-tier exchange rate system; the effort partially unwinds after reserve pressure.
Why this link: CPI inflation rose from 21.2% (1993) to 31.4% (1994) and peaked at 49.7% in 1995 -- the highest rate in the pre-2010s WDI series -- as the 1993 devaluation (official rate from ~66 to ~1,268 rials/US$) passed through into import prices with the classic 1-2 year exchange-rate pass-through lag.
Caveat: None substantial; this lag structure is consistent with standard exchange-rate pass-through literature.
Lag: 1-2 year lagSource: IMF Iran country page (Article IV history)032012Rial collapses amid sanctions squeezeAssociation
Under the combined weight of NDAA Central Bank sanctions, the EU oil embargo and the SWIFT disconnection, Iran's free-market rial loses roughly a quarter to 40% of its value against the US dollar within a single week, falling to about 35,000-40,000 rials/dollar versus roughly 10,000/dollar two years earlier; Tehran's Grand Bazaar merchants strike in protest on 3 October 2012.
Why this link: CPI inflation rose from 26.3% (2011) to 27.3% (2012) and then 36.6% (2013) as the sanctions-driven rial collapse of October 2012 passed through into consumer prices, one of the most directly documented sanctions-to-inflation episodes in Iran's recent economic history.
Caveat: None substantial.
Lag: immediate to 1-year lagSource: NPR -- Currency In Crisis: Collapse Of Iran's Rial Continues042018US withdraws from JCPOAAssociation
President Trump announces US withdrawal from the JCPOA and reimposition of sanctions after 90/180-day wind-down periods (effective Aug 7 and Nov 5, 2018).
Why this link: CPI inflation more than doubled from 18.0% (2018) to 39.9% (2019) following the JCPOA withdrawal and snapback sanctions, one of the sharpest single-year inflation accelerations in the series.
Caveat: None substantial.
Lag: immediate to 1-year lagSource: Wikipedia — US withdrawal from the JCPOA (cross-check against OFAC primary orders)052022Preferential "4,200 toman" import-currency rate eliminatedAssociation
Parliament approves ending the subsidized foreign-currency allocation for essential imports (flour, medicine), removing the ~$10-14bn/yr subsidy and roughly doubling bread prices for many bakeries.
Why this link: CPI inflation stayed persistently elevated at 43-45% through 2021-2023. The May 2022 removal of the subsidized import-currency rate for essential goods (which roughly doubled bread prices for many bakeries) is a direct, well-documented driver of a meaningful share of this sustained inflation, compounding the base effect of ongoing sanctions-era rial depreciation.
Caveat: This is one contributing factor among several sustaining an already very high inflation baseline (sanctions, prior rial depreciation, expansionary broad-money growth); it does not explain the full 43-45% level on its own.
Lag: immediate (same year)Source: Bourse & Bazaar Foundation