Revenue, excluding grants (% of GDP)_

Event_Log

1. 011973Oil price shockAssociation

   OPEC price increases following the Arab oil embargo roughly quadruple Iran's oil revenue, fueling a large-scale but overheated state spending boom (Fifth Development Plan, 1973-78).

   Why this link: Government revenue nearly doubled as a share of GDP, from 26.3% (1973) to 45.7% (1974), as the oil-price quadrupling flowed directly into government oil receipts, which dominate total revenue.

   Caveat: None substantial.

   Lag: immediate (same year)Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin
2. 0219861986 oil price collapseAssociation

   Saudi Arabia abandons its swing-producer role; oil prices crash from ~$27 to under $10/barrel, straining every oil-exporting economy in this database (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, USSR, Iran).

   Why this link: Government revenue collapsed from 18.7% of GDP (1985) to 12.6% (1986), the series' lowest point, as the global oil-price crash crushed Iran's overwhelmingly oil-dependent revenue base at the worst possible moment for financing the ongoing war with Iraq.

   Caveat: None substantial.

   Lag: immediate (same year)Source: US Energy Information Administration