Oil rents (% of GDP)_

Event_Log

1. 011973Oil price shockAssociation

   OPEC price increases following the Arab oil embargo roughly quadruple Iran's oil revenue, fueling a large-scale but overheated state spending boom (Fifth Development Plan, 1973-78).

   Why this link: Oil rents jumped from 18.6% of GDP (1973) to 47.4% (1974), the highest level in the entire 1970-2021 series, tracking the OPEC price quadrupling essentially one-for-one.

   Caveat: None substantial -- oil rents are close to a direct function of oil price and output, so this link is close to definitional.

   Lag: immediate (same year)Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin
2. 0219861986 oil price collapseAssociation

   Saudi Arabia abandons its swing-producer role; oil prices crash from ~$27 to under $10/barrel, straining every oil-exporting economy in this database (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, USSR, Iran).

   Why this link: Oil rents collapsed from 13.0% (1985) to 5.3% (1986), the series' lowest point, matching the global oil-price crash (Saudi Arabia's abandonment of its swing-producer role) almost exactly.

   Caveat: None substantial.

   Lag: immediate (same year)Source: US Energy Information Administration
3. 032008Global Financial Crisis — Lehman Brothers collapseAssociation

   Triggers a synchronized global recession; oil prices crash from ~$147 to ~$40/barrel within months, hitting every oil exporter in this database simultaneously, while credit-driven European economies (Spain, Portugal, Greece) enter prolonged crises.

   Why this link: Oil rents fell from 30.6% (2008) to 17.6% (2009), a 42.6% YoY drop, as global crude prices crashed from ~$147 to ~$40/barrel following the Lehman collapse.

   Caveat: None substantial.

   Lag: immediate (same year)Source: Federal Reserve History
4. 0420142014-2016 oil price collapseAssociation

   Oil prices fall from ~$115 to below $30/barrel amid US shale supply growth and OPEC's decision not to cut output; a major driver of Venezuela's and Russia's subsequent crises, and a fiscal shock for Saudi Arabia and Iran.

   Why this link: Oil rents fell from 21.2% (2014) to 12.3% (2015) and 10.9% (2016) as global crude fell from ~$115 to below $30/barrel amid US shale supply growth and OPEC's decision not to cut output.

   Caveat: None substantial.

   Lag: immediate to 1-year lagSource: US Energy Information Administration
5. 052016JCPOA Implementation DayAssociation

   IAEA certifies Iranian compliance; US, EU and UN lift nuclear-related sanctions on oil, banking, shipping and other sectors, unlocking roughly $56bn of previously frozen assets.

   Why this link: Oil rents rebounded sharply to 27.7% of GDP in 2018 (from 14.6% in 2017) as sanctions relief unlocked after January 2016 allowed Iran's oil exports to recover substantially, coinciding with a rising global Brent price (~$70-80/barrel through 2018) -- just before the May 2018 JCPOA withdrawal reversed the trend the same year.

   Caveat: The 2018 uptick is measured against a GDP denominator that was itself starting to shrink from FX effects that same year, which mechanically inflates the ratio somewhat independent of the real export recovery.

   Lag: 1-2 year lagSource: OFAC — JCPOA Implementation Day actions