Merchandise exports (current US$)_

Event_Log

1. 011973Yom Kippur War and 1973 oil embargoAssociation

   Arab OPEC members embargo the US and allies; oil prices roughly quadruple, reshaping the fiscal trajectories of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela alike (all oil exporters) and triggering stagflation in importer economies.

   Why this link: Merchandise exports jumped from $2.67bn (1973) to $8.40bn (1974), +214.8% in a single year, as OPEC price increases following the embargo roughly quadrupled Iran's oil revenue -- one of the largest single-year moves in the entire series.

   Lag: immediateSource: Encyclopaedia Britannica
2. 0219861986 oil price collapseAssociation

   Saudi Arabia abandons its swing-producer role; oil prices crash from ~$27 to under $10/barrel, straining every oil-exporting economy in this database (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, USSR, Iran).

   Why this link: Exports fell from $14.18bn (1985) to $7.17bn (1986), -49.4%, tracking the global oil-price crash from ~$27 to under $10/barrel after Saudi Arabia abandoned its swing-producer role -- Iran was simultaneously mid-war (Iran-Iraq War) and thus especially exposed to a price shock it could not offset by cutting output (it needed the foreign exchange for the war effort).

   Caveat: The Iran-Iraq War itself is a major confound/compounding factor for this whole 1980s window, not a separate additive shock -- war-driven export-terminal damage and a general wartime economic dislocation sit underneath the pure price-collapse effect.

   Lag: immediateSource: US Energy Information Administration
3. 032008Global Financial Crisis — Lehman Brothers collapseAssociation

   Triggers a synchronized global recession; oil prices crash from ~$147 to ~$40/barrel within months, hitting every oil exporter in this database simultaneously, while credit-driven European economies (Spain, Portugal, Greece) enter prolonged crises.

   Why this link: Exports fell from $113.7bn (2008) to $78.8bn (2009), -30.6%, as the synchronized global recession crashed oil prices from ~$147 to ~$40/barrel within months -- Iran's exports track this global oil-price collapse closely despite having no direct exposure to the Western banking crisis itself.

   Lag: immediateSource: Federal Reserve History
4. 042011NDAA Section 1245 targets Central Bank of IranAssociation

   Section 1245 of the FY2012 National Defense Authorization Act requires blocking the US-jurisdiction property of Iranian financial institutions including the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), and threatens foreign banks that knowingly conduct significant CBI transactions with loss of direct access to the US financial system -- a major escalation targeting Iran's oil-revenue payment channels that helps trigger the rial's collapse the following year.

   Why this link: Exports fell from $132.0bn (2011, the all-time series peak) to $108.3bn (2012, -17.9%) to $90.8bn (2013, -16.2% further, -31.2% cumulative) as the NDAA Central Bank sanctions, EU oil embargo and SWIFT disconnection combined to cut off Iran's ability to sell oil and repatriate payment -- one of the cleanest, best-documented sanctions-to-trade-collapse pairings in this database.

   Lag: immediate, deepening over 2 yearsSource: U.S. Department of State -- Section 1245 of the NDAA for Fiscal Year 2012
5. 0520142014-2016 oil price collapseAssociation

   Oil prices fall from ~$115 to below $30/barrel amid US shale supply growth and OPEC's decision not to cut output; a major driver of Venezuela's and Russia's subsequent crises, and a fiscal shock for Saudi Arabia and Iran.

   Why this link: Exports fell from $95.2bn (2014) to $70.3bn (2015), -26.2%, tracking the global oil-price slide from ~$115 to below $30/barrel amid US shale supply growth and OPEC's decision not to cut output -- a fiscal shock Iran shared with Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia over this same window.

   Lag: immediateSource: US Energy Information Administration
6. 062018US withdraws from JCPOAAssociation

   President Trump announces US withdrawal from the JCPOA and reimposition of sanctions after 90/180-day wind-down periods (effective Aug 7 and Nov 5, 2018).

   Why this link: Exports fell from $103.4bn (2018) to $65.7bn (2019, -36.5%) to $46.9bn (2020, -28.6% further, -54.6% cumulative) after JCPOA withdrawal, the April 2019 end of oil-import waivers explicitly aimed at zeroing out Iran's oil exports, and the COVID-19 demand shock layered on top in 2020 -- the steepest sustained multi-year export decline in the post-1979 series.

   Caveat: 2020's contribution is a compound of sanctions AND the COVID-19 global demand collapse (GLOBAL, 2020-03-11) -- the two cannot be cleanly separated in this single aggregate series.

   Lag: immediate, deepening over 2 yearsSource: Wikipedia — US withdrawal from the JCPOA (cross-check against OFAC primary orders)