وام‌دهی خالص (+) / استقراض خالص (-) (درصد از تولید ناخالص داخلی)_

رویدادها

1. 01۱۹۷۹Islamic Revolutionقوت ارتباط

   Mohammad Reza Shah's government falls; the Islamic Republic is proclaimed under Ayatollah Khomeini on 1 April 1979.

   چرایی این پیوند: The fiscal balance swung to -13.9% of GDP in 1980, its deepest deficit in the 1972-2009 series, as revolutionary disruption to oil exports and tax collection combined with the immediate outbreak of full-scale war to blow out government financing needs just as revenue collapsed.

   ملاحظه: None substantial.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate (same year)منبع: Encyclopaedia Britannica
2. 02۱۹۸۶1986 oil price collapseقوت ارتباط

   Saudi Arabia abandons its swing-producer role; oil prices crash from ~$27 to under $10/barrel, straining every oil-exporting economy in this database (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, USSR, Iran).

   چرایی این پیوند: After narrowing to -3.9% of GDP in 1985, the deficit reopened to -8.9% (1986), -7.5% (1987) and -9.4% (1988) as the oil-price collapse hit government revenue precisely as war expenditure remained elevated through the conflict's costliest, most destructive final years (including the 1988 'War of the Cities').

   ملاحظه: War-related spending itself was rising in absolute terms over this period for reasons independent of the oil-price shock, so the two drivers of the reopened deficit cannot be fully separated.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate to 2-year lagمنبع: US Energy Information Administration
3. 03۱۹۹۷Asian Financial Crisis beginsقوت ارتباط

   Thai baht collapse triggers contagion across East Asia (see South Korea entry for the IMF program specifics).

   چرایی این پیوند: The fiscal balance swung from +0.1% of GDP (1997) to -5.3% (1998) as the Asian Financial Crisis-driven collapse in oil demand pushed crude prices down toward ~$10/barrel by early 1999, a well-documented shock to OPEC members' government revenues including Iran's.

   ملاحظه: Iran-specific fiscal decisions (e.g., import or spending choices in the FY1998 budget) are not separately verifiable from this series alone; the causal channel is inferred from the well-established global oil-price collapse of 1998, not a directly cited Iran-specific budget document.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate to 1-year lagمنبع: Wikipedia — 1997 Asian Financial Crisis (cross-check)