مهاجرت خالص_

رویدادها

1. 01۱۹۷۹انقلاب اسلامیقوت ارتباط

   حکومت محمدرضا شاه سقوط کرد و جمهوری اسلامی در اول فروردین 1358 (1 آوریل 1979) به رهبری آیت‌الله خمینی اعلام شد.

   چرایی این پیوند: The revolution triggered a large, well-documented wave of elite and middle-class emigration (the post-revolution exile population), directly reflected in migration-stock series covering this period.

   ملاحظه: Later waves of emigration were also driven by the Iran-Iraq War and subsequent political/economic crises, so not all migration-series movement in the following decades traces to 1979 specifically.

   تأخیر اثر: same year onwardمنبع: Encyclopaedia Britannica
2. 02۱۹۷۹تهاجم شوروی به افغانستانقوت ارتباط

   نیروهای شوروی برای حمایت از دولت کمونیستی کابل وارد افغانستان شدند و جنگی نه‌ساله را آغاز کردند که به برآورد سازمان سیا تا سال 1986 حدود 18 میلیارد روبل (در حدود 1 تا 2 میلیارد دلار در سال) هزینه داشت و بودجه شوروی را در سراسر دهه 1980 تحت فشار قرار داد.

   چرایی این پیوند: Iran's net migration, which had fluctuated in the 50,000-125,000/year range through the 1960s-70s, spiked to 1,452,169 in 1981 -- by far the largest single-year figure in the 65-year series -- plausibly reflecting the first wave of Afghan refugees fleeing the Soviet invasion and the ensuing war, a documented, sustained inflow that made Iran one of the world's largest refugee-hosting countries through the 1980s.

   ملاحظه: The same year overlaps with the Iranian Revolution's own aftermath and the start of the Iran-Iraq War, both of which could independently affect measured net migration; WDI's net-migration series is also a residual estimate (derived from population-accounting identities rather than direct border counts) and is known to be volatile and revision-prone in exactly this way.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate to 2 yearsمنبع: Encyclopaedia Britannica
3. 03۱۹۸۰آغاز جنگ ایران و عراققوت ارتباط

   جنگی هشت‌ساله (1359-1367) که هزینه‌های مالی سنگینی تحمیل کرد، صادرات نفت را مختل ساخت و نظام جیره‌بندی و کوپن کالاهای اساسی را نهادینه کرد.

   چرایی این پیوند: Despite the well-documented estimate elsewhere in this database (see iran_census__marriage_migration_patterns_1956_1991) that roughly 3 million Iranians went into exile during the 1979-88 revolution-and-war era, this chart's NET migration figure stays positive throughout nearly the entire war (103,674 in 1980 to 242,411 in 1986), only turning negative in the early 1990s. The two findings are not contradictory: a large gross OUTFLOW of Iranian emigrants coexisted with an even larger gross INFLOW of Afghan and Iraqi refugees, and net migration nets the two against each other -- a genuinely useful, non-obvious clarification of what 'net migration' does and does not capture.

   ملاحظه: This project does not have separate gross inflow/outflow series to confirm this refugee-inflow-dominates-emigrant-outflow explanation directly; it is inferred from combining this chart with the marriage/migration chart's diaspora estimate, not read off a single source.

   تأخیر اثر: throughout the war, 1980-1988منبع: Encyclopaedia Britannica
4. 04۱۹۹۱فروپاشی اتحاد جماهیر شورویقوت ارتباط

   شوروی به 15 کشور جانشین تجزیه شد؛ روسیه بیشتر نهادهای اقتصادی شوروی را به ارث برد و از سال 1992 گذار آشفته‌ای به سوی اقتصاد بازار («درمان شوکی») را آغاز کرد.

   چرایی این پیوند: Net migration swung sharply negative in 1992 (-451,945) and 1993 (-1,696,091), the two largest outflow years in the series, right as the Soviet withdrawal's aftermath (the Najibullah government's collapse in Afghanistan, April 1992) reopened and destabilized Afghanistan -- plausibly triggering a wave of Afghan refugee repatriation attempts out of Iran even as the country remained unstable.

   ملاحظه: This is a plausible but not confirmed mechanism -- the 1991 Gulf War's Iraqi-Shia refugee episode (a wave of refugees into Iran followed by significant repatriation) is a similarly-timed alternative or compounding candidate not itself represented as a dated row in this project's timeline, and the two cannot be cleanly separated from net-migration data alone.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate to 2 yearsمنبع: Encyclopaedia Britannica
5. 05۲۰۰۳آغاز جنگ عراققوت ارتباط

   حمله به رهبری آمریکا تقریباً 2 میلیون بشکه در روز از تولید نفت عراق را متوقف کرد؛ قیمت‌های جهانی نفت خام به سمت 40 دلار جهش کرد پیش از آنکه عربستان سعودی و دیگر اعضای اوپک تولید را برای جبران این کاهش افزایش دهند، و میانگین قیمت در کل سال 2003 به 30 دلار در هر بشکه رسید (19 درصد بالاتر از سال 2002).

   چرایی این پیوند: Net migration jumped to 700,222 (2003), 739,996 (2004) and 765,873 (2005) -- the highest sustained multi-year levels since the early 1980s -- plausibly reflecting a wave of Iraqi refugees (including Iraqi Kurds and Shia Arabs) entering Iran following the US-led invasion and the ensuing insurgency and sectarian violence.

   ملاحظه: WDI's net-migration series does not break out inflows by country of origin, so this explanation -- while consistent with contemporaneous UNHCR reporting on Iraqi displacement into neighboring states -- cannot be verified against an Iran-specific breakdown within this project's own data.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate, 2003-2006منبع: Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP)